The beginning of March delivered a classic reminder for global markets: geopolitics rarely stays out of focus for long.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and triggered an immediate reaction in energy markets. Oil surged more than 26% during the week, bringing inflation and energy security back to the center of macroeconomic discussions.

In the United States, the employment report surprised to the downside, signaling early signs of moderation in the labor market. The data adds complexity to the Federal Reserve’s outlook, as policymakers now face an environment where economic cooling and inflationary pressures may coexist.

At the same time, China is signaling a more disciplined growth cycle with more conservative targets for the coming years, while the global race for leadership in artificial intelligence continues to attract increasing volumes of capital, now accompanied by intensifying regulatory discussions.

When energy, monetary policy, and technology move simultaneously, markets begin to operate under a different analytical framework.

The full analysis is available in our weekly report.